Watch This Line and Prepare to Buy Puts

America is about to learn its lesson once again. We’ve been bracing for this bombshell for months now – and we’re reaching the point of no return. In a few weeks, 176 million Americans will get the wind knocked out of them… and if you’re not prepared now, you could end up drowning in a $6 TRILLION debt tsunami. I strongly recommend you see this urgent information immediately.

At the Fed meeting earlier this week, Chairman Powell used some code words to warn us to watch out for downside ahead.

Powell told us that he’s the tough hombre that will stick to tight policy until there’s “a significant and lasting correction in the markets.” That certainly means more than a measly 10% correction, or even a fast 20% decline. Earlier in the press conference he alluded to the idea that a housing bust is a much more serious threat to the economy than a mere stock market decline. So it’s pretty clear that there will be no Powell Put for the stock market. Powell is warning you to be prepared to take some pain.

Furthermore, the Fed will only BEGIN to reverse policy AFTER a big market decline. The first steps toward ease never create a bottom. Stock prices continue to fall in early stages of lowering rates and priming the pumps. Remember 2008? The Fed started lowering rates in 2007. The stock market didn’t bottom until 2009. The S&P 500 lost 57% of its peak value while the Fed was lowering rates.

We’ve had enough warning. The market has been generous to those who hung on to their stocks despite the warnings. Those who stayed in have been rewarded again and again. Alarms have been sounding and the market has kept rising. That’s how manias behave.

Critical: If you’re reading this, it could already be too late

Now, the alarm has been sounded again. The late day selloff in stocks on the 26th was a recognition of that by some traders. It brought the market to this rally’s trendline from the June low.

Closing below that line and below 2900 would be a sign that this would be a good time to buy a few at the money puts on the SPY, expiring in about a month to take advantage of the downside that’s likely to follow. These puts would give you tremendous leverage to profit from the downside, including the potential for triple digit percentage gains. But remember to limit your trade to no more than you’d be willing to lose if we are too early again and the market extends its rally.

And if you’re not already mostly out of stocks, let Powell’s words at the meeting serve as a reminder that the time is growing short to do so. If you choose not to sell, then at least use puts to cushion the portfolio losses that are sure to come.

Sincerely,


Lee Adler

2 Responses to “Watch This Line and Prepare to Buy Puts”

  1. Lee, love your fundamental work, but I sure could help you with your timing. Glad you have a lucky out this time with “break of trendline or close under 2900” as I have minor low this weekend and we will shoot up yet again…you are possibly finally about right on the timing…simple now as I can tell you Oct should NOT close the month over the Sept close Friday…that will confirm the top I have as very probable for Sept – Oct. this is the first time in bout 10 years I have had to be concerned with mkt drop…it should bottom in 2020 and could move up into later 2019 or go out more to 2021…..In 6–12 months I will be able to nail the timing for the bottom . Jamie Diamon clearly mentioned his concern about a month ago saying he was “nervous about the Fed taking the 50 billion out a month ” and that we have never been here before” First Wall Streeter I have seen comment on it. Highest Regards, fred cleaves PS I learned years ago with Ham Bolton’s monetary thermometer which correctly called every recession

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