If you’ve been reading my work for a long time, you may have noticed something by now…
I’ve been telling you the same thing again and again… the market is going to decline, and it has to do with the Fed and liquidity.
That’s because the Fed and liquidity are the most important pillars of the demand side of the supply/demand balance that drives market prices.
Most Wall Street analysts distract you with fodder about insignificant events and short term market movements. I take the opposite approach. I adopt a big picture view-the forest, not the trees-and I deal with actual data, not narratives, or stories about the data that often aren’t correct.
Recently, someone told me that my writing is repetitive.
And he was right – I do talk about the same things again and again. Because those things are what’s important, and they change slowly, almost imperceptibly over time. It’s like watching the hour hand of a clock and reporting on it every 5 minutes. We can’t see it moving, but we know that it is.
Right now, the Fed is deflating the financial system. It has been deflating the system for the past 10 months – but at a rate that until now has been imperceptible to the stock market, and has been showing up in the bond market and the money markets. The Fed has been increasing the rate at which it deflates the system slowly, but now that rate is approaching critical mass. It will sooner or later will cause a tremendous decline. That time is coming.
So when it comes to criticism, you could say I’m kind of like Noam Chomsky. Chomsky has been broadly criticized for giving unconventional lectures. When challenged about the unconventional manner of his presentations, he simply says something to the effect of, “I like it that way … it sticks to the facts.”
So you could say that my own writing is such for that very reason – it sticks to the slowly, imperceptibly changing facts and data. Ultimately the impacts will be felt grossly and quickly. They will be all too obvious. There will be a cataclysmic break. And it will too late for you to do anything about it.
But it’s part of a slow moving process that you need to be hyper aware of…