Sometimes, my charts make me feel like Jekyll and Hyde.
The forces of macro liquidity tell us that the stock market (and the bond market too) are likely to top out and head into a bear market beginning in Q1 2018 or shortly thereafter. But this week the S&P 500 broke out above 2600. Technical cyclical analysis suggests that prices could be headed much higher.
So which is it? Are stocks the next bitcoin? Or are we staring the bear in the teeth?
How can we reconcile these apparently conflicting views that are coming from the two prongs of my analytical work? Maybe… there really is no conflict. (Cue suspenseful music.)
Here’s what you need to know to take advantage of what this market is likely to hold in store for us in 2018.
The Fed released the minutes of its October meeting last week. Because of the holiday, most of us missed it. But there was some important stuff here that reaffirmed my view of what the Fed is doing and why.
So here’s a look at what the Fed says was said at the meeting–not what was actually said. The meeting minutes are propaganda, designed to get across the Fed’s main narrative. The actual words of the participants (supposedly) won’t be released until 5 years hence. The Fed wants you to know what it wants you to know. Usually that’s not the same thing as what it actually knows, but it’s still important.
As always, their real message is cloaked in doublespeak and obfuscation.
And that message has direct implications for your money (which is why they don’t want you to understand it).
Fortunately, your trusty Fed watchdog (me!) is here to translate for you…