The Government Shutdown Is Still Bullish So Here’s What To Do

The stock market has been on an amazing tear since December 26. The government shutdown (GSD) began December 22. Coincidence? No. I told you about the belated epiphany I had about this back on January 11:

But there’s one other thing that is bullish in the short run, and you’ll never believe what it is!

That short term factor is the government shutdown. That’s right. It’s bullish. Forgive me for telling you this only now, but unfortunately, it just dawned on me. I’ve been speculating about it for a week or so, but now the data confirms my suspicions.

This rally isn’t business as usual. It’s not about what the media is telling you: that the economy is fine, inflation is low, and the Fed will not raise interest rates as much as originally feared.

One thing is the same about this market, though. And that’s the underlying principle that drives all markets. The market has moved, as always, because of money. It’s pretty simple. When there’s not enough money around, the market declines. When there’s a surplus, the market rises.

Until December 22, there wasn’t enough money around. But then, something changed.

Since December 26, a tidal wave of money has sent the market surfing higher. That money isn’t coming from the usual source, the Fed and its fellow central banks. They’re going the other way.  

Nope. This time it’s coming from the US Treasury. And this time is also different because the people controlling the money dynamics aren’t motivated by long term economic factors. They are motivated by politics. That makes this a whole different kind of ballgame than the one we usually play.

Here’s what it’s about, and what you can do to profit from it


Tax Data Shows That The Latest Market “Narrative” is Really a “Myth”

There’s a special report that I look forward to on the 8th business day of the month. This month, that was the 11th. Only this month, it wasn’t there. It’s the Monthly Treasury Statement for the preceding month from the US Treasury.

We love that data because it’s raw, unadulterated, and unmanipulated. It gives us an inside look at critical sectors of the US economy. It covers the entire month, not just a snapshot on a given day, and it’s only 8 days old when they give it to us.

Even better is the end of month Daily Treasury Statement, which is released the day after the month ends. I’ve been accumulating that data for years. Not only is it pure unmanipulated reality, it’s real time.

I issue a detailed monthly report about key line items, like withholding, non-withheld, corporate and excise taxes. And I’m always happy to pull a juicy tidbit from that report for you every so often.

Then around the middle of the month, I report on the Monthly Treasury Statement. The monthly data provides additional details on Social Security versus income tax withheld, and in the categories of Excise taxes. Those are like Federal sales taxes on numerous items, like guns, alcohol, your phone bill, tobacco,  as well as the better known levies on  aviation, and gas at the pump.

It’s great data and I was looking forward to finding and reporting something interesting for you. But alas, this month it’s nowhere to be found. The government shutdown has delayed it. I guess  we’ll just have to go without for now.

But that’s the nice thing about the Daily Treasury Statement. They’re still publishing it and we need not wait until the end of the month. And boy does it have an interesting story to tell this month.

A chart of the data shows that the current market narrative is really a myth! Click here to see for yourself.


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