Trump’s Tax Cuts Are “Hiding” This Critical Stock Prediction

Federal tax collections data gives us a leg up on the market, because it tells us what to expect when the lagging economic data indicators are released later. That puts us ahead of the crowd, which is waiting for biased Wall Street pundits to interpret already stale, manipulated data, when it’s finally released. Meanwhile we already know what the facts are.

Tax data has told us whether the lagging economic indicators are promoting a false narrative. Thanks to statistically massaged data, and deliberate, or unknowing misinterpretation by the talking heads, that can go on for months. But we know the facts.

More importantly perhaps, the tax data has told us what the Fed will be seeing when it gets the lagging economic data. That helped us to know whether incoming economic data will keep the Fed on track or not.

Now, however, the picture has gotten fuzzy. The big tax cuts enacted into law at the end of 2017 have begun to impact tax collections. That makes it virtually impossible to analyze year to year changes on a like versus like basis. It will be several months, and perhaps the whole year, before we can make these year to year comparisons in a way that reflects the actual trend of the US economy.

In other words, Trump’s tax cuts are hiding the “big picture” right now when it comes to market predictions.

But fortunately, there’s another “bonus” indicator that tells us what’s going on…


This European Scam Will Make Our “Super Crash” Much Worse

Ultimately, all financial roads lead to Wall Street. The big investment banks and trading firms known as Primary Dealers all play in one worldwide money pool. When the ECB prints money, it’s not just available to Europe, it is also instantly available to Wall Street. This isn’t Vegas. What happens in Europe doesn’t stay in Europe. That’s why it’s important to keep track of the performance of the European banking system.

Any decline in European liquidity will have a negative impact on Wall Street, the US Treasury market, and US stocks.

And any European skullduggery is likely to make 2018’s bear market much worse.

Unfortunately, that’s precisely what’s going on now.

(But don’t worry – as always, we’re set up for protection and even a bit of upside…)


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