My Crucial Bearish Indicators, Plus a Critical Bullish One I Missed

Based on both my cyclical/technical analysis and liquidity analysis, I had a July 10 deadline for the end of the strong period for stocks. We’re now a week past that point and the market remains a tad higher than it was on July 10, and higher overall than I anticipated. When the market misaligns with the projected timeframe of my analysis, it’s time to ask whether I’m wrong or just early. As I do my research, that question is never far from my mind.

It’s important to always do a little post mortem when things don’t go as expected. In doing so, I try to figure out what happened and what I missed that caused the market to operate outside my expectations. That can help me make a course correction in my current forecast. At times, it can even help me recognize a new or different indicator that provides me with a deeper understanding of what’s driving the market, and where it’s ultimately headed.

While I cannot possibly account for every fluctuating input influencing the market direction, I try to recognize those that are most important.

That’s why I’ve organized a handful of the most important indicators that I’ve been using, as well as a couple that perhaps I should have given more consideration.


The WSJ Sounds Bullish Here. But They’re Ignoring Half the Equation

An article in the Wall Street Journal this week reported that private equity firms are sitting on a trillion in cash. That, of course is supposed to be bullish for stocks.

But that’s only half the story. Or less than half. It’s about the demand side of the equation for one investor sector out of many.

Let’s look at some of the factors on the other side of the ledger that show why this bullish WSJ piece is misleading and what we actually need to do…


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