|Editor’s Note: I hope you enjoy today’s guest issue from Tim Melvin! Tim and I don’t always see eye to eye, but he is a contrarian par excellence, and right now, he agrees with me that the warning signs in the market look suspiciously similar to ones we saw back in 2007. Tim and I are both pretty “fed up with stocks” right now – and with good reason. If you hate stocks, you have to read this now. – Lee Adler|
I have had my moments of stupidity over the years. (The 1970s stand out as a period where I excelled at really dumb stuff.) Taking the Patriots over the Giants and giving points in the 2008 Super Bowl was dumb. My early spring wager on the Orioles making the wild card doesn’t look so smart as we sit here in August either.
Sometimes, my stupidity is just stupid, like the time when I fell asleep on the beach at noon on a cloudless day after staying up too late the night before.
But at other times, it rises to the level of genius.
During the late years of an extended bull market, for instance, I’m the dumbest guy in the office.
I’m a valuation sensitive, stubborn investor and I do the exact opposite of what the “smart money” thinks I should.
Now that kind of dumb really pays off.
My pigheadedness kept me from losing a dime in 1998 and 2008, when everyone else was hyperventilating into giant paper bags — and made sure I had enough cash to plow in near the bottom and reap triple digit returns both times.