Why I’m Worried About Being Wrong, Or Not

I wouldn’t be a normal human being if the strength of the stock market rally didn’t make me worry that my long term outlook for a bear market is wrong.

Back on January 9, I posted a likely outside rally target of 2640-50. The S&P was then trading at 2584.  Now it’s at 2725, and in the wee hours this morning, it’s looking even higher.

It’s small comfort that I’ve been suggesting that you look to several of our gurus here at Money Map Press for trading picks that are indifferent to the market’s direction. These are short term plays that take what the market gives. Our guys have been incredibly successful at finding hugely profitable trades regardless of market direction.

The moneymaking power doesn’t stop (even when the market drops)

But in my big picture repports here, I’ve recommended not chasing this rally for the long term, because the liquidity backdrop is bearish, and so are the long term technical indicators up to this point.

The Fed came out with some strong words last week that set the market off again. They made it look like a major policy reversal toward ease is under way, and the market and the media universally perceived it that way. 

But is it really? Maybe not. And what does cyclical and technical analysis say now about how high this rally will go and whether we’re still in a bear market?

Click here to find out, day tripper!


Here’s Why “Boffo” Jobs Numbers Should Worry You

The BLS reported blowout jobs numbers on Friday. The headline number rose 304,000. That is the seasonally adjusted (SA) artistic impressionism version. We here at Sure Money like the actual numbers, not seasonally adjusted (NSA). It’s easy to see the trend visually, and we can quantify by comparing the month to month trend with the same month in the past 10 years. We can add a check of the momentum of the annual rate of change. 

January is always the biggest month for job losses as holiday workers get laid off. This January was no exception, as 2.98 million jobs disappeared. How that turned into a gain of 304,000 is one of the great mysteries of seasonal adjustment. The 304,000 number blew out economists’ estimates and looks absolutely boffo.  However, the number wasn’t appreciably different than anything that has been going on for the past 7 years, as you can see below.

Look at this chart and see why the Fed’s new policy is still a de facto autopilot.