So you think you want to be a liquidity analyst? Here’s a list of links to get you started.
H 41 – Weekly Fed Balance Sheet By tracking this over time you can see the growth or shrinkage of the Fed balance sheet. This is virtually in real time, published 1 day after the close of the weekly statement period.
H8 Weekly US Commercial Banking System Balance Sheet There’s a wealth of data here on the condition of a slew of banking system indicators. It’s published 9 days after the close of the weekly statement period, so it’s timely. Again, by tracking over time, you can see the liquidity flows.
Agency MBS Historical Operational Results and Planned Purchase Amounts Follow the ever shrinking Fed MBS replacement purchases as they head toward zero in October or November.
Treasury Net New Issuance or Paydowns Know how much supply is coming to the market, or conversely in quarterly tax collection periods, how much cash.
FRED Banking system demand deposits chart Watch the level of deposits slow and maybe even decline as the Fed pulls money from the system. The St. Louis FRED database has a wealth of financial and economic data. You can even combine various series into your own custom indicators.
Debt to the Penny The daily level of the Federal debt posted with a one day lag. There’s a tool here for historical data so that you can see and plot the trend in your own spreadsheet.
FedFunds Data Track the level and trading volume of Fed Funds with a one day lag.
Primary Dealer Statistics Historical data on total Primary Dealer positions in fixed income securities, as well as Primary Dealer financing.
Traders in Financial Futures; Futures-Only Commitments of Traders Weekly data on financials futures positions by type of trader. Look for the Dealer Intermediary data. They’re mostly the Primary Dealers. Tracking this over time, you can see how wrong they often are, triggering violent market reversals.
Daily Treasury Statement Track Federal revenues and spending up to the minute, released with a one day lag. Unlike government economic data, this is actual unmanipulated data. And it is absolutely current. When you string the history together, you can see the performance of the US economy in real time.
|This “liquid metal” melts in the palm of your hand (URGENT)
Current TBAC Treasury Issuance Estimate The bible of future Treasury supply, released quarterly from this page of the US Treasury website. Don’t be fooled. Despite its denials, the Treasury really does follow this schedule very closely. The Primary Dealers know what’s coming, and so do we.
Have fun building your database and putting it all together. Or take the easy way and let me do it for you in the Wall Street Examiner Pro Trader.
If (for some reason) you’re still in the market, and interested in learning how to make profits on the downside, you can look at our ideas here, or check out Shah Gilani’s put play research and recommendations in Zenith Trading Circle.
Have a very bearish weekend!