Financial media pundits have been breathlessly speculating lately about who the next Fed Chair will be. Will it be Yellen again? Will it be Cohn? Will it be Warsh? Or will it be somebody else?
I have a pretty good idea, and if I were handicapping this race, I’d give Warsh 3-2 odds.
But among the names that have been floated to replace Yellen, there have been no radicals except Yellen herself. The rest of the horses in the race are all members of the Washington-Wall Street-axis-establishment echo chamber.
If there’s a radical in the crowd, it’s Madame Chair herself. Yellen, who is the shortest Fed Chair in history, even shorter than Bernanke, is growing in stature in my eyes.
Here’s why Yellen is a hero – and why her legacy will remain even if Trump says, “You’re fired!” on his current “reality” show production.
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As you know, the Fed dictates the direction of the markets…but there’s actually a way to predict the Fed’s actions ahead of time. And this indicator is available to us every day in real time.
There’s an economic indicator (actually, indicators) that gives a much clearer picture of the U.S. economy than the official and unofficial economic statistics that are reported in the mainstream media. It’s hard cold data of what actually is. It’s not collected by survey, not constructed from tiny samples and then extrapolated a millionfold, and not manipulated by statisticians and economists. It isn’t misreported by the media because they never report it.
The U.S. Treasury publishes this data every day, one day after those taxes are collected. When it comes to the U.S. economy, it doesn’t get any more real time than that.
It is U.S. government tax collections, and right now it’s telling an important story that we all need to pay attention to.