My Full 2017 Market Forecast

My 2016 call for the S&P 500 to drop 10-15% occurred within the first month of last year; stocks spent the rest of the year recovering until they rallied strongly after the election.  That’s a fancy way of saying that my year-end call was wrong by a long-shot.  I thought growth would be slow and that the Federal Reserve would move slowly to raise rates, both of which were true.  But markets surprised me by shrugging off signs of economic stress as well as the Brexit vote and rejection of the Italian constitutional referendum.

2016 was a year of surprises – and no doubt we’ll see a few in 2017, too.

But after doing a good deal of studying and thinking, I’ve finalized my market outlook for the next 12 months.

  • Here’s my 2017 target range for the S&P.
  • Here’s where I think bonds are headed.
  • Here’s my complete currency forecast.

And last but not least, here’s my new list of recommendations for 2017 – both on the long and the short side.

We’re in for a wild ride this year. There is more policy and geopolitical uncertainty than ever.

Here’s what to expect.

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My 2016 Report Card (The Good, The Bad And The Ugly)

What a crazy year this has been. We are living in an upside-down-world where despite terrible fundamentals, Brexit, Trump’s election, the Italy vote and the Fed raising rates, sentiment keeps pushing the market higher and higher. Instead of the crash we expect and deserve, we get an apparently endless rally. Nothing makes sense. Nothing has gone as expected.

Well, that’s not true. 68% of the stocks in my forecast last year still did exactly what I expected them to do.

A rising tide lifts all boats, so some of the toxic stocks I pointed out last year haven’t crashed yet, or haven’t fallen as far as I expected. (Some have gone up, though only negligibly). However, you’ll still see a generous amount of red in our shorts column (one stock dropped 75% this year) and an even more generous amount of green in our longs column.

I hope you’ve made some money on these – especially on the long plays. Drop me a line in the comments and let me know how you did.

I try to pick stocks that are so good or so bad that even a year-long nonsense rally can’t conceal their true colors. Judge for yourself how well I’ve done.

Here’s my report card…

To continue reading click here.