This Is The Only Number That Can “Switch Off” The Bull Market

The stock market has enjoyed quite a run since Election Day. But even before Donald Trump surprised the world and won the U.S. presidency, stocks were on an epic run that began in March 2009 at the depths of the Great Financial Crisis. The most impressive aspect of this bull market is that it defied the worst economic recovery in the last century and survived eight years of Obama administration policies that were hostile to economic growth and markets.

Rather than building on a solid economic foundation, the bull market benefited from zero interest rates, lower corporate tax payments, wage suppression and financial engineering in the form of epic levels of debt-funded M&A, stock buybacks and dividend increases. These factors have little if anything to do with the fundamental financial condition of American corporations.

Eight years later, this leaves the markets (which really means the individual companies comprising it) overvalued and overindebted.

The only important question for investors, however, is not where the market has been but where it is going. The answer to that question lies in whether the serious valuation, growth and debt headwinds facing stocks are more powerful than a set of structural forces that developed over the past two decades that pushed stock prices to extremely high valuation levels today – as high as we’ve seen in the last one hundred years.

Here’s why we’re being inexorably sucked into a bull market right now.

And here’s the only thing that can stop it…

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Two Ways The Government Is Lying to You Right Now

We live in an inauthentic world, yet people perceived to be telling the truth are demonized and shunned by the establishment. The fact that it took everybody so long to figure out that mainstream media promoted “fake news” to support their own political agenda is testimony to the fact that we claim to seek authenticity but settle for insincerity, falsehood and duplicity in our personal, business and civic relationships. Those of us who refuse to settle are considered “difficult.”

The question I keep asking (because I am decidedly “difficult”) is whether these people are wrong because they are stupid or because they are lying. I’ve come to conclude that the two alternatives are not mutually exclusive though one of the worst sins our society commits against itself is confusing educational achievement and wealth for intelligence or good intentions.

The U.S. government is a major promoter of fake news. It lies to its citizens about virtually everything, but one of its specialties is the publication of phony economic statistics to justify failed economic policies. Whether this will change under the new administration remains to be seen (I’m not holding my breath and neither should you), but the last eight years were characterized by one false narrative after another bolstered by phony government statistics.

These two outright lies should concern you the most.

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