No one can be right all the time – but I do my dead-level best.
I call it like I see it, and that means when I miscalculate, I own up to it.
Here’s a case where I got the numbers right, but the timing wrong – and then I went ahead and took my prediction a step too far. If you’ll recall, last December I released a bearish forecast for year-end 2016, predicting that (contrary to most Wall Street rhetoric) the S&P 500 would hit 1,875 before the end of the year.
That prediction came true just weeks later…
After a brutal first two weeks, we shaved 1,417 points – more than 8% – off the Dow. The S&P 500 dipped well below my 2016 year-end target of 1,875-1,900, hitting 1,829 before recovering.
At that point, I revised my 2016 forecast even lower, down to 1,650 to 1,750.
As it turned out, I should have left well enough alone.
It’s been obvious for a while that the S&P 500 was not going to hit my revised year-end target of 1,650 to 1,750. As we enter Q4, we are in a market gridlock, with stocks hovering near record highs based on the misplaced belief that central banks are all-powerful. It will most likely take one of these two events to dislodge them.
So here’s my new forecast…
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